The results of the crisis (IPC Phase 3) are expected to persist in Cabo Delgado until May 2022
Most households in rural areas face outcomes of acute food insecurity None (IPC Phase 1) or Stressed (IPC Phase 2) at the start of the lean season, supported by their food stocks and their food purchases at local markets. Stressed results (IPC Phase 2) persist in areas that have been affected by natural disasters over the past three years, but results are expected to improve in April 2022, supported by a rainy season and harvest expected averages. In Cabo Delgado, the results of the crisis (IPC Phase 3) persist in conflict-affected areas where IOM estimates that around 642,000 displaced people in Cabo Delgado are living with host families or areas resettlement with little or no access to their basic livelihood activities. In urban and peri-urban areas, most poor households are likely to be in Stress (IPC Phase 2), as COVID-19 control measures and below-average economic activity impact household power. household purchases, the most vulnerable households probably being in crisis (IPC Phase 3).
In Cabo Delgado, there are reports of some IDPs returning to their areas of origin to assess livelihood possibilities (agriculture, fishing, trade), the impact of the conflict on their properties and the possibility of returning with their families. However, most of the IDPs are expected to remain in conflict-free areas of Cabo Delgado during the 2021/2022 rainy season due to security concerns. At the end of October, the government started distribution of seeds and other agricultural inputs internally displaced persons to increase agricultural production and reduce food insecurity problems. However, the need for humanitarian food assistance is likely to remain high until harvest at least in May 2022. The World Food Program (WFP) predicts that more than 930,000 internally displaced people and host families in Cabo Delgado, Niassa and Nampula will likely need HFA until May 2022. However, due to limited resources, WFP plans to continue providing semi-monthly rations equivalent to 39 percent of daily calories. Other humanitarian organizations are likely to provide food aid in accessible areas in coordination with district authorities.
The expected average rainy season is expected to support average agricultural production for the 2021/2022 agricultural season in most of Mozambique. However, there is a likelihood of moderate to high risk flooding, which could lead to crop losses in the surrounding lowland areas, including the Maputo, Umbelúzi, Incomati, Limpopo, Búzi, Púnguè, Savane and Licungo river basins afterwards. the 2020 / rainy season 2021. To reduce the risk of flooding, authorities at the Pequenos Libombos dam in Maputo have increased flows by more than 130 percent to strengthen the retention capacity to accommodate upstream flows during the next rainy season because the dam is at 91 percent of its capacity at the start of the rainy season.
From August to September, the price of grain corn showed mixed trends, with most markets posting stable prices. However, grain corn prices have fallen 6-7 percent in some markets due to changes in local supply and demand. Compared to a year ago, corn grain prices in September were 8 to 27 percent lower in all monitored markets, possibly reflecting the larger domestic grain supply. Compared to the five-year average, grain corn prices in September showed mixed trends, with market prices ranging from similar to the five-year average, 11 to 25 percent below the five-year average, and 6 to 24 percent below the five-year average. one hundred above the five-year average. mean. Maize flour and rice prices showed a stable trend from August to September.